the belief that it could always outmatch Iran in any phase of the conflict—may have been misguided. Prof Mearsheimer
Araweelo News Network – Associated Online Agencies
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Washington / International Desk – Prominent international relations scholar John Mearsheimer has argued that the United States has already effectively lost its confrontation with Iran, warning that the conflict is unfolding without a clear path for de-escalation.
Speaking in a discussion with political analyst Glenn Diesen, Mearsheimer said the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is not developing as planned and could lead to a humiliating strategic outcome for Washington.
According to the professor, the administration of Donald Trump entered the conflict with expectations that Iran could be quickly weakened or forced to surrender. Instead, he argued, the reality on the ground has demonstrated that Tehran retains significant military and strategic capabilities.
No Clear “Off-Ramp”
Mearsheimer emphasized that the United States currently lacks a realistic “off-ramp” from the conflict. He suggested that Washington’s assumption of escalation dominance—the belief that it could always outmatch Iran in any phase of the conflict—may have been misguided.
Iran, he argued, possesses the ability to retaliate against critical infrastructure across the Gulf region, including energy facilities and maritime routes vital to the global economy.
Strategic Air Power Limits
The discussion also touched on the historical limitations of strategic air power. Mearsheimer noted that bombing campaigns alone rarely achieve decisive political outcomes, pointing to multiple past conflicts where air superiority failed to force political surrender.
He also suggested that Iran could be benefiting from intelligence and strategic cooperation from global powers such as Russia and China, potentially strengthening Tehran’s ability to withstand prolonged military pressure.
Economic Fallout for Europe
Another concern raised in the conversation was the economic impact on Europe, which could face severe consequences if the conflict continues to disrupt global energy supplies and shipping routes across the Middle East.
Rising oil prices and instability around major maritime chokepoints could trigger broader economic instability far beyond the region.
Strategic Reality
Mearsheimer concluded that the greatest risk for Washington may be its reluctance to acknowledge the strategic realities of the conflict.
According to the professor, ignoring the balance of power and continuing escalation could push the United States deeper into a costly and politically damaging confrontation with Iran.
As tensions continue to grow across the Middle East, analysts warn that the absence of diplomatic solutions may prolong the conflict and increase the risk of wider regional instability.
By Arraale M Jama Freelance Journalist and Human Rights
activist.
Araweelo News Network – Associated Online Agencies